6 things to watch on the energy and climate front

Emissions trading, the Paris climate agreement and an electricity market overhaul are on the agenda.

Bracing for a Brexatom? A key question in Brexit negotiations will be whether the U.K. sticks to its plan to pull out of the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom) as well as the EU in March 2019, and how it goes about replacing Euratom’s role in managing nuclear fuel supply, non-proliferation inspections and research funding. Brexit Secretary David Davis opened the door to uncertainty in July, when he suggested the U.K. could still seek some sort of associate membership of Euratom. The EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, aims to shift Brexit negotiations from talking about the U.K.’s disentanglement from the EU and Euratom to their future relationship by the end of this year.

Emissions trading: The European Parliament, Commission and Council just might manage to seal a deal on complicated reform of the EU’s Emissions Trading System for 2020-2030 when their negotiators meet in September. However, they plan to meet again in October, suggesting the talks could go longer. There are three main political issues on the table: how to boost the low price for pollution permits and cut the market’s chronic oversupply; how to keep business from shifting to less environmentally stringent regions; and how to manage funds to help poorer countries update their energy systems.

Emissions cuts outside the carbon market: The Estonian presidency of the EU hopes to broker a common position on two key climate change policies for 2020-2030 when EU environment ministers meet on October 13 — the Effort Sharing Regulation, which assigns national emissions reduction targets for non-industrial sectors like agriculture and transport, and a plan to make sure land use, land use change and forestry help reduce CO2 emissions. Both files are still very divisive, with disagreements over the accounting rules for land use and forestry and the creation of a reserve of carbon credits for poorer countries. The Parliament adopted its position in June.

Electricity market overhaul: The Commission’s proposal for redesigning the bloc’s electricity markets will be a focal point in the Council this fall, as Estonia hopes to clinch a common position by the end of the year. The overhaul is aimed at linking the EU’s regional markets and making room for a rise in renewable energy. A core issue in talks among countries will be whether to get rid of regulated energy prices. The Commission is keen to do so by creating more consumer freedom in the market, but some countries are resisting.

Paris climate agreement: Climate negotiators from nearly 200 countries meet in Bonn from November 6-17 to continue hammering out rules on issues such as transparency and accounting to make sure countries meet the emissions reductions targets they pledged under the Paris climate agreement. The summit, hosted by Fiji, is the last chance to prepare this rulebook before the parties meet in 2018 to assess their efforts before the accord takes effect in 2020, and potentially ramp up their commitments. It remains to be seen whether the U.S. sends a delegation to the summit.

Gazprom antitrust settlement: The Commission could announce whether it’s going ahead with its proposed antitrust settlement with Gazprom, or dropping it, by about Christmas. The deal, agreed upon in March, would require the Russian gas giant to change its prices for gas supplied to Central and Eastern Europe to better reflect market prices in Western Europe. Controversially, it would spare Gazprom from any financial penalty — a provision that has drawn heavy criticism from Central European governments. Brussels has accused Gazprom of abusing its dominant position in the region.