How legal issues threaten Turkey refugee deal

European leaders agreed on a blueprint for a controversial refugee deal with Turkey overnight, but the framework contains so much legal uncertainty that even its designers seemed unsure of its viability.

At the center of the German-inspired proposal, which EU leaders are expected to present to Turkey Friday morning, is a mechanism to allow Greece to effectively deport unwanted refugees who land on its shores back to Turkey en masse. But because Turkey has not fully adopted the Geneva convention on refugees, Ankara must first change its own laws before the expulsions could be carried out. Otherwise, Greece could find itself in violation of the treaty.

That’s just one of a thicket of legal measures that need to be implemented in both Greece and Turkey before the plan could go forward.

Despite the open questions, Europe’s leaders believe they can reach an accord with Turkey on the plan on Friday.

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The summit discussion Thursday evening was dominated by the legal implications.

Helping hand for Greece

In addition to changing laws, the EU also plans to dispatch a small army of judges and “hundreds of asylum officers” to Greece to oversee the process, officials said. Even though Greece does not aim to keep any of the refugees, it is obligated under international law to examine each individual case.

“This has to be done in respect of human rights,” said French President François Hollande. “It will be up to the European Commission to monitor whether this is respected.”

The other key aspect of the plan, which entails resettling Syrians living in Turkey in the EU, is no less fraught. Under the agreement, the EU would take one Syrian from Turkey for every Syrian it sends back from Greece. The hope is that the returns will dissuade refugees from crossing the Aegean and disrupt the smugglers’ business model.

So far, the EU is willing to take in about 72,000 Syrians under the program. But the process for deciding who wins admission to the EU from Turkey is far from clear. About 2.7 million Syrian refugees now reside in Turkey, many of them in refugee camps.

Even Angela Merkel, the plan’s unofficial sponsor, struck a cautious note on the legal implications of the proposal. The agreement “must rest on a clear legal foundation,” she said early Friday after the EU leaders’ dinner concluded.

Any deal with Turkey will face an immediate legal challenge. Groups including Amnesty International and the UN’s refugee agency, which the EU wants to be involved in the process, have questioned it on both ethical and legal grounds.

The Commission and the European Council insist the agreement can be structured to pass legal muster.

Even if does, another concern is whether Greece will be able to implement it. Even though the EU plans to devote considerable resources to the effort, the ultimate responsibility rests with Athens.

“Greece is in charge,” Merkel said.

Officials involved in the discussions say its unrealistic to expect a country in the midst of an economic depression to manage a challenge on this scale. Thousands of refugees continue to arrive in Greece every day, presenting a challenge that would test the administration of even the most advanced country.

Greece was taking refugees’ fingerprints on old-style paper forms until the EU provided it with more modern technology last year. Athens also needed several months to get four refugee registration centers up and running, even with the EU’s help.

The other aspects of the EU’s proposal appear less problematic. There was speculation in the run-up to the summit that Cyprus would block a deal to accelerate Turkey’s EU application unless Ankara agreed to recognize the Greek government there.

EU opens its doors

At issue is a Turkish demand that the EU reopen several areas of negotiation, or “chapters” in Brussels-speak, that Cyprus has been blocking.

To skirt the issue, the text of the latest proposal doesn’t mention the specific chapters that would be unfrozen. Not all of the chapters on hold have been blocked by Cyprus, which means the EU could push the process forward without violating Nicosia’s moratorium.

Turkey’s top priority, accelerated visa liberalization for its citizens, is also part of the EU’s proposal. It would allow Turks to travel to and from the EU without a visa. But Ankara would still have to meet dozens of requirements, including the introduction of biometric passports, for it to go into effect. The European Parliament would also have to give its approval, something that is far from certain.

The least controversial part of the plan appears to be the additional financial aid for Turkey. Under the proposal, Ankara would receive €3 billion in aid for Syrian refugees in the coming years in addition to the €3 billion the EU has already committed.