Analysis: Why India will bluster but won’t risk military confrontation in Kashmir over deadly attacks

The scale and timing of the suicide bombing against Indian police in Kashmir may leave Narendra Modi, the Indian prime minister, little option except to retaliate, but his dilemma is how to act without stoking conflict with Pakistan.

The attack only weeks before a general election is an opportunity to boost his authority with a display of resolution which, if handled well, his supporters hope could seal victory.

Yet the scale of the attack claimed by Pakistan-based militants Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) was so large that he would likely have been forced to act whether there was an election or not.

Mr Modi set his own precedent in 2016 when he authorised “surgical strikes” across the contested line…

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