A security expert reveals the possible thinking behind Carlos Ghosn's wild escape from Japan, which involved 2 planes and a mad dash between Turkey and Lebanon

REUTERS/Chaiwat Subprasom

• Carlos Ghosn, the former head of the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance, fled Japan to Lebanon on Sunday.

• Whoever planned Ghosn’s escape was likely skilled, Tulane professor and security expert Robert Allen said, but this probably wasn’t the work of a reputable security company, which would not want to risk the reputational damage resulting from a botched operation.

• To pull off this kind of high-stakes endeavor, you need to plan it in a way that minimizes your odds of being detected. That means traveling at night and using a private airport, Allen said.

• While Allen said it is difficult to determine how much money the operation might have cost, he estimated it fell somewhere in the range of a few million dollars.

• There has been speculation that Ghosn was transported inside a container of some kind. That scenario would make sense, Allen said, as the alternative, using a disguise, would not hold up to serious scrutiny.

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The security professionals that smuggled Carlos Ghosn out of Japan likely had two priorities, according to Robert Allen, a professor at Tulane and security expert: working quickly and discreetly.

Ghosn, the former head of the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance, had been awaiting trial in Japan after being charged with underreporting his income at Nissan and using company money for personal gain. He has denied those allegations. 

Ghosn fled Japan on Sunday evening local time, Reuters reported, ultimately arriving in Lebanon, where he grew up, after switching to a second plane in Istanbul, Turkey. The former auto executive had reportedly learned that his second trial would be delayed until April 2021, which motivated his decision to flee Japan. He has also expressed skepticism about the Japanese legal system, which has a conviction rate of 99%.

While Allen said it is difficult to determine how much money the operation might have cost, he estimated it fell somewhere in the range of a few million dollars.

Descriptions of the people Ghosn hired to coordinate the operation have varied. Reuters referred to them as a “private security firm,” while the Financial Times used the term “private security operatives.” Whoever planned Ghosn’s escape was likely skilled, Allen said, but this probably wasn’t the work of a reputable security company, which would not want to risk the reputational damage of getting caught.

“This definitely wasn’t amateur hour, but I don’t think it was a legitimate company,” Allen said. “I think you had a couple of really smart people in there that knew how to do this.”

To pull off this kind of high-stakes operation, you need to plan it in a way that minimizes your odds of being detected. That means traveling at night and using a private airport, which would allow a passenger to board their aircraft faster than at a public airport and avoid extensive security checks, Allen said.

There has been speculation that Ghosn was transported in a double-bass case, though people close to Ghosn have denied it. But that scenario would make sense, Allen said, as the alternative, using a disguise, would not hold up to serious scrutiny. That would be particularly true for Ghosn, a celebrity in Japan who was the subject of a biographical comic book after reviving Nissan in the early 2000s.

Ghosn’s high profile also raises questions about the precautions Japanese authorities didn’t take that could have prevented Ghosn’s escape. In particular, Allen said he would have put an electronic ankle bracelet on Ghosn to track his movements.

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“I’d have had an ankle monitor on him, without a doubt,” Allen said. “He wouldn’t go anywhere without somebody knowing.”

• Read more:

• Carlos Ghosn’s escape plane reportedly also ferried gold for Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro

• A timeline of how Carlos Ghosn fled 24/7 surveillance in Japan, escaped on a private jet, and made it to Lebanon

• Auto legend and ex-GM exec Bob Lutz slams fugitive Carlos Ghosn, says he has a ‘god complex’ and ‘CEO disease’

• Carlos Ghosn reportedly celebrated New Year’s Eve at a glitzy dinner with his wife in Lebanon after his mysterious escape from Japan

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